It’s amazing how easy it is to forget about baseball, women’s basketball, and soccer as soon as football season gets underway. Nevertheless, I felt it was high time to reflect on the amazing season that Chris Sale is having. Last night, he outdueled Max Scherzer, the now 19-3 Detroit Tigers pitcher that is a frontrunner for the American League Cy Young Award. However, it is just another example of the inconsistent and misleading statistic that pitcher wins and losses is. Let’s look deeper at the numbers.
Chris Sale: 2.90 ERA, 207 K’s, 1.04 WHIP, .223 BAA
Max Scherzer: 3.01 ERA, 215 K’s, 0.96 WHIP, .199 BAA
The numbers are extremely close! Sale has a better ERA, slightly fewer K’s, a higher WHIP and a higher batting average against. But their records are the big difference. Scherzer, after picking up the loss last night (his 2nd in a row), now has a 19-3 record. Chris Sale, on the other hand, has an 11-12 record. Let’s dig a bit deeper by looking at their run support.
Max Scherzer is 4th in the MLB with an average of 5.62 runs scored per appearance. Chris Sale has the 6th worst run support in the MLB at 3.26 runs per appearance. This is obviously because of the teams they play for, as Anibal Sanchez, another Tigers starting pitcher, is 3rd in the MLB in run support. Simply put, the Tigers offense is great, having scored the 2nd most runs in the MLB. The White Sox- well, they’re the 2nd worst offense in the major leagues based on runs scored. So, let’s get hypothetical here and switch up Chris Sale and Max Scherzer and pretend they played for the other’s respective teams. On a game-by-game log, here are how many runs Sale has given up:
Game 1- 7.2 IP, 0 ER
Game 2- 7 IP, 3 ER
Game 3- 4.1 IP, 8 ER
Game 4- 7 IP, 2 ER
Game 5- 7 IP, 2 ER
Game 6- 7 IP, 2 ER
Game 7- 7.1 IP, 1 ER
Game 8- 9 IP, 0 ER
Game 9- 7.2 IP, 0 ER
Game 10- 6 IP, 1 ER
Game 11- 7.1 IP, 4 ER
Game 12- 8 IP, 0 ER
Game 13- 5 IP, 4 ER
Game 14- 8 IP, 3 ER
Game 15- 8 IP, 3 ER
Game 16- 7 IP, 2 ER
Game 17- 6.2 IP, 3 ER
Game 18- 8 IP, 2 ER
Game 19- 9 IP, 1 ER
Game 20- 5 IP, 5 ER
Game 21- 7.1 IP, 1 ER
Game 22- 9 IP, 2 ER
Game 23- 7 IP, 3 ER
Game 24- 7 IP, 8 ER
Game 25- 8 IP, 1 ER
Game 26- 7.1 IP, 2 ER
Game 27- 8 IP, 1 ER
As reference, I’ve underlined Chris Sale’s losses on the season. I’ve bolded out the ONLY two games where Chris Sale gave up more runs than what Scherzer averages in run support per game. Under this metric, the argument can be made that with Scherzer’s run support, Chris Sale might only have two losses on the season, and if you want to add wins based on quality starts, Sale would add 7 wins to the 11 that he already has. That would put Sale’s record at 18-2 (.900), or roughly .04 percentage points better than Scherzer’s 19-3 record (.863). Now, for argument’s sake, let’s look at Scherzer’s metrics when applied to Sale’s run support.
Game 1- 5 IP, 4 ER
Game 2- 6 IP, 1 ER
Game 3- 8 IP, 1 ER
Game 4- 5 IP, 5 ER
Game 5- 7.1 IP, 3 ER
Game 6- 8 IP, 1 ER
Game 7- 8 IP, 4 ER
Game 8- 7 IP, 5 ER
Game 9- 8 IP, 1 ER
Game 10- 6 IP, 1 ER
Game 11- 8 IP, 3 ER
Game 12- 7 IP, 1 ER
Game 13- 7 IP, 2 ER
Game 14- 6 IP, 1 ER
Game 15- 7 IP, 2 ER
Game 16- 7 IP, 3 ER
Game 17- 6.1 IP, 2 ER
Game 18- 7 IP, 2 ER
Game 19- 6 IP, 4 ER
Game 20- 8 IP, 2 ER
Game 21- 6 IP, 0 ER
Game 22- 7.2 IP, 0 ER
Game 23- 7 IP, 2 ER
Game 24- 6 IP, 2 ER
Game 25- 8 IP, 2 ER
Game 26- 6 IP, 0 ER
Game 27- 5 IP, 5 ER
Game 28- 7 IP, 2 ER
Game 29- 4 IP, 4 ER
I’ve underlined Scherzer’s losses on the season. If you look closely at the numbers, you’ll see that Scherzer thrice gave up 5 runs and didn’t lose any of those games. Additionally, Scherzer only lost 1 of his quality starts this season! Contrary to that, Chris Sale lost 7 quality starts. Based on that, let’s add six losses to Scherzer’s record and subtract six wins. All of a sudden, Scherzer stands at a very modest 13-9 record, and that’s not even counting the potential losses that could have come from his three appearances where he gave up at least five runs, occasions that Chris Sale lost every time!
Therefore, when you look in-depth at Sale’s and Scherzer’s statistics, you come away seeing that they’ve had very similar years, but one has been doomed by playing on a last place team and the other has been awarded by playing on a division winner. But a couple other metrics sway their numbers for me. Scherzer, while at times dominant, has zero complete games and zero shutouts. Chris Sale has four complete games and one shutout. That signals to me that Sale has been more of an ace and a horse for the White Sox than Scherzer has been for the Tigers, not surprising considering he shares a rotation with Anibal Sanchez and Justin Verlander, but for teams with similar relief pitching ERAs (the Sox are at 3.85, 22nd in the MLB; the Tigers are at 4.07, 24th in the MLB), it seems that the Tigers would like their pitchers to throw as late into games as possible, and it’s telling to me that Scherzer doesn’t have a single complete game. Lastly, Chris Sale’s numbers have been largely blown up based on his two appearances where he gave up 8 earned runs. It’s unfair to just take those numbers out of his season statistics, but without a couple of blowups, his WHIP and BAA would be line with Scherzer and his ERA would be well ahead.
It’s because of this that I think Chris Sale has been a better and more dominant pitcher than Max Scherzer and therefore, has more of a stake on the AL Cy Young Award. After all, the Cy Young Award is given to the pitcher with the best statistics, not the pitcher that is most valuable. But in a league where pitcher wins and losses are overblown, Chris Sale will likely be overlooked given his poor record that is a product of playing for a very bad team. On July 22nd, Sale and Scherzer met for the first time on the season. Both pitchers went 8 innings and gave up 2 ER, Sale had 11 K’s and Scherzer only had 5, but Sale picked up the loss because of bad defense and poor relief pitching. However, in the end, hopefully, Sale can take solace in the fact that last night, when he met Max Scherzer for the second time, having evenly pitched the first outing, he ended the argument once and for all by going 8 innings, giving up 1 run, and striking out 8. Scherzer, meanwhile, went 4 innings, gave up 4 earned runs, struck out 6, and the end result?
Well, even the White Sox couldn’t screw that one up.
Your daily Chicago/national sports schedule (one game to watch)
Cubs @ Reds – 6:10 pm
US Men’s Soccer @ Mexico – 7:00 pm ESPN
White Sox vs. Tigers – 7:10 pm